In this report, we analyze the main economic developments of the second quarter of 2026, against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, renewed inflationary pressures, and tighter financial conditions.

The report examines the impact of international conflicts on energy and commodity prices, the effects of U.S. trade tariffs, Brazil’s fiscal and monetary dynamics in an election-year context, and the outlook for inflation, interest rates, and economic activity throughout the year. The analysis also covers the specific economic scenarios for Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, including projections for agriculture, industry, services, and retail.

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